News

The number of pre-seed funding rounds for Bitcoin (BTC) startup companies has grown by 767% since 2021, according to a report from venture capital firm Trammell Venture Partners (TVP).

Bitcoin pre-seed transactions increased 50% year-over-year in 2024, with a 27.5% year-over-year increase in the number of startup companies funded.

Christopher Calicott, TVP's managing director, attributed the increased deals to the robust security of the BTC network:

"Many entrepreneurs across crypto are revisiting the Bitcoin stack as the long-term place to build their companies. It makes perfect sense: The objectively most secure, reliable, and decentralized blockchain is the obvious platform of choice."

However, the capital raised in Bitcoin pre-seed funding rounds declined by over 22% in 2024, with the median funding round size and the median startup valuation steadily declining from 2021 to 2023.

The value of funding rounds reclaimed some lost ground in 2024 but failed to reach highs established during the previous bull cycle in 2021, primarily due to unclear crypto regulations in the United States under the previous Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) leadership.

More recently, macroeconomic uncertainty due to fears of a prolonged trade war, relatively high interest rates, and the possibility of a recession in the United States have also eroded the risk appetite for speculative assets like crypto.

Related: VC Roundup: 8-figure funding deals suggest crypto bull market far from over

Crypto VCs don't expect 2025 funding to reach 2021-2022 levels

In January, Deng Chao, CEO of institutional asset manager HashKey Capital, told Cointelegraph that pro-crypto regulations in the United States would increase VC investment in the sector in 2025.

However, the executive warned that macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical turmoil could increase price volatility and disrupt the trend brought on by positive regulatory tailwinds.

On April 2, US President Donald Trump signed a sweeping tariff order establishing a 10% baseline tariff on import goods from all countries and a regime of reciprocal trade tariffs on trading partners that sent financial markets tumbling.

Risk-on assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies typically suffer during trade wars and macroeconomic uncertainty, as investors flee risk assets for safer alternatives such as cash, government securities, and durable commodities.

Venture capital firm Haun Ventures invested $1.5 billion into crypto firms in 2022 but recently announced it seeks to raise only $1 billion in the first half of 2025, citing changed market conditions.

Similarly, analysts at Galaxy Digital also predicted a 50% year-over-year rise in VC-led crypto investments in 2025 but said that VC funding will fail to reach highs established in 2021–2022.

Magazine: Financial nihilism in crypto is over — It’s time to dream big again

The US House Financial Services Committee advanced a bill aimed at preventing federal banks from using or issuing central bank digital currencies, or CBDCs, paving the way for a vote in the chamber.

In an April 2 committee session, lawmakers voted 27-22 in favor of passing the CBDC Anti-Surveillance State Act. The bill was one of five the committee considered in a markup hearing discussing possible amendments. Lawmakers also approved a bill regulating payment stablecoins, setting up the legislation for a full House vote.

“Last Congress, this bill passed out of the House of Representatives by a 216-192 vote,” said Minnesota Representative Tom Emmer, the anti-CBDC bill’s sponsor. “So far this Congress, this bill has 114 cosponsors and support from groups ranging from the Independent Community Bankers Association and the American Bankers Association to Club for Growth, Heritage Action, and the Blockchain Association.”

Related: Crypto regulation must go through Congress for lasting change — Wiley Nickel

Many Republican lawmakers have warned institutions such as the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department away from exploring CBDC development, often citing financial privacy concerns. After reintroducing the bill in March, Emmer suggested it was an attempt to codify an executive order from US President Donald Trump into law. That order, signed on Jan. 23, prohibited “the establishment, issuance, circulation, and use” of a CBDC in the United States.

Is it politically advantageous to oppose CBDCs?

It’s unclear whether the anti-CBDC bill will have the votes in the House and Senate to be passed to Trump’s desk to sign into law. Senator Ted Cruz introduced a companion bill to Emmer’s on March 26, suggesting a coordinated effort by Republicans to push the legislation through.

Since the development of digital assets, government entities like the Fed have explored the possibility of releasing a CBDC. Many US lawmakers and industry leaders have opposed the idea, claiming the technology could be used to monitor Americans’ financial transactions.

Magazine: Solana ‘will be a trillion-dollar asset’: Mert Mumtaz, X Hall of Flame

Bitcoin (BTC) and US stock markets all sold off sharply after US President Donald Trump shook up financial markets by announcing a list of reciprocal tariffs on several countries.

On April 3, the S&P 500 saw a 4.2% drop at market open, its most significant single-day decline since June 2020. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 3.41%, to 40,785.41 from 42,225.32, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 5.23%. Overall, $1.6 trillion in value was wiped out from US stock at the market open.

Bitcoin’s value dropped by 8%, but a positive is bulls seem capable of defending the $80,000 support level. These steep declines essentially stem from uncertainty surrounding the new tariffs and amplify investors’ concerns about impending recession.

Data from CoinGecko suggests that the total crypto market has dropped 6.8% over the past 24 hours and it seems unlikely that a relief rally is viable in the short-term.

Related: Bitcoin price risks drop to $71K as Trump tariffs hurt US business outlook

Crypto liquidations soar to $573M

According to CoinGlass, in the past 24 hours, more than 200,000 traders were liquidated, with the total amount exceeding $573.4 million. The largest liquidation occurred on Binance, with an ETH/USDT position worth $11.97 million being force closed.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s open interest dropped below $50 billion, reducing market leverage. Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, mentioned that the liquidation heatmaps indicate heavy leverage around $80,000, raising the potential for a potential drop to $64K-$65K if Bitcoin breaks this level with high trading volume.

Related: Trump 'Liberation Day' tariffs create chaos in markets, recession concerns

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin (BTC) hit new monthly lows at the April 3 Wall Street open as US unemployment data added to pressure on risk assets.

Bitcoin gives early April gains as stocks plummet

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirmed the first trip below $82,000 for BTC/USD since the start of the month.

After initially surging as high as $88,580 as the US government unveiled reciprocal trade tariffs, Bitcoin soon ran out of steam as the reality of the stronger-than-expected measures hit home.

US stocks then followed, with the S&P 500 down over 4% on the day at the time of writing.

“Today's -3.7% drop puts the S&P 500 on track for its largest daily decline since the 2020 pandemic lockdowns,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of a reaction on X. 

“Since the after hours high at 4:25 PM ET yesterday, the S&P 500 has erased nearly $3 TRILLION in market cap.”

Thereafter, US initial jobless claims came in below estimates, at 219,000 versus the anticipated 228,000, per data from the US Department of Labor (DoL).

“The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 224,000 to 225,000. The 4-week moving average was 223,000, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 224,000 to 224,250,” an official press release stated.

Stronger labor market trends are traditionally associated with weaker risk-asset performance as they imply that policymakers can keep financial conditions tighter for longer.

Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool nonetheless continued to see markets favor an interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve at the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

“As recession odds rise, markets think that the Fed will be forced to cut rates as soon as next month,” Kobeissi added.

Bearish BTC price action could last “3-6 months”

BTC price action predictably continued to disappoint on short timeframes as $80,000 support became uncomfortably close.

Related: Bitcoin price risks drop to $71K as Trump tariffs hurt US business outlook

“Stair step up then elevator down,” popular trader Roman summarized in part of his latest X analysis.

Market commentator Byzantine General flagged short positions increasing across major crypto pairs, concluding that tariffs would ensure that lackluster conditions would continue.

“I could see a stop hunt below the local lows before a pump to squeeze shorts, then probably more chop that slopes downward,” he told X followers. 

“I do think that with the tariff responses that are most likely coming upside will be limited.”

Onchain analytics firm Glassnode had more bad news. According to their data, Bitcoin printed a new “death cross” involving the convergence of two midterm moving averages (MAs).

“An onchain analogue to the Death Cross has emerged. The 30-day volume-weighted price of $BTC has crossed below the 180-day, signaling weakening momentum,” an X post announced. 

“Historically, this pattern preceded 3–6 months of bearish trends.”

Earlier this week, Glassnode observed that speculative sell-offs in recent months have fallen considerably short of volumes traditionally associated with blow-off BTC price tops.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Decentralized exchange (DEX) aggregator ParaSwap announced its rebrand to Velora and is moving on to a new intents-based trading feature.

According to an announcement shared with Cointelegraph, Velora’s just introduced its Delta v.2.5 upgrade. This supposedly results in improved flexibility and agility in trade execution on the DEX.

Paraswap has seen 18,000 monthly active users over the last month with 4.3 million smart contract interactions over the past 365 days, according to TokenTerminal data. The platform first introduced intents-based trading back in the summer of 2024, with hopes that it would mitigate the negative impact of maximum extractable value (MEV) bots.

Since then, ParaSwap submitted orders in three steps. First the order is preprocessed defining the expected trade price, then this is submitted to an auction to determine the most efficient execution strategy considering liquidity and timing. The winning agent executes the trade while taking the user’s intent into account and purportedly minimizing MEV exploitation risks.

Related: Hyperliquid DEX trading volumes cut into CEX market share: Data

A crypto MEV bot is an automated program that exploits profit opportunities in blockchain transaction ordering—using tactics like front-running and arbitrage to capture extra value. The project’s founder Mounir Benchemled said at the time:

The presence of MEV impacts not only individual transactions but also the overall fairness, accessibility and decentralization of the DeFi ecosystem, making it one of the most pressing issues that needs addressing.”

Velora’s intent-based trading implementation

Velora’s implementation of intent-based trading is more customizable, giving the user “full control over their execution preferences, unlocks advanced features like limit orders, overcoming the constraints of single-block execution and increasing flexibility.” The new aggregator is also reportedly designed to allow for seamless cross-chain trading and enhanced performance.

Related: Curve Finance clocks $35B trading volume in Q1 2025

Sergej Kunz, Co-Founder of DEX aggregator 1inch, told Cointelegraph that “end users shouldn't have to worry about the complexities” of decentralized finance. According to him, an intent-based system removes much of this complexity:

“An intent-based system is designed to shift all risk and complexity away from users and into the hands of professionals who specialize in executing advanced DeFi strategies. A true intent-based DEX must provide MEV protection at the protocol level and offload execution complexity to professional trading bots.“

Magazine: Financial nihilism in crypto is over — It’s time to dream big again

Opinion by: Rob Viglione, co-founder and CEO of Horizen Labs

Can you trust your AI to be unbiased? A recent research paper suggests it’s a little more complicated. Unfortunately, bias isn’t just a bug — it’s a persistent feature without proper cryptographic guardrails.

A September 2024 study from Imperial College London shows how zero-knowledge proofs (ZKPs) can help companies verify that their machine learning (ML) models treat all demographic groups equally while still keeping model details and user data private. 

Zero-knowledge proofs are cryptographic methods that enable one party to prove to another that a statement is true without revealing any additional information beyond the statement’s validity. When defining “fairness,” however, we open up a whole new can of worms. 

Machine learning bias

With machine learning models, bias manifests in dramatically different ways. It can cause a credit scoring service to rate a person differently based on their friends’ and communities’ credit scores, which can be inherently discriminatory. It can also prompt AI image generators to show the Pope and Ancient Greeks as people of different races, like Google’s AI tool Gemini infamously did last year.  

Spotting an unfair machine learning (ML) model in the wild is easy. If the model is depriving people of loans or credit because of who their friends are, that’s discrimination. If it’s revising history or treating specific demographics differently to overcorrect in the name of equity, that’s also discrimination. Both scenarios undermine trust in these systems.

Consider a bank using an ML model for loan approvals. A ZKP could prove that the model isn’t biased against any demographic without exposing sensitive customer data or proprietary model details. With ZK and ML, banks could prove they’re not systematically discriminating against a racial group. That proof would be real-time and continuous versus today’s inefficient government audits of private data.  

The ideal ML model? One that doesn’t revise history or treat people differently based on their background. AI must adhere to anti-discrimination laws like the American Civil Rights Act of 1964. The problem lies in baking that into AI and making it verifiable. 

ZKPs offer the technical pathway to guarantee this adherence.

AI is biased (but it doesn’t have to be)

When dealing with machine learning, we need to be sure that any attestations of fairness keep the underlying ML models and training data confidential. They need to protect intellectual property and users’ privacy while providing enough access for users to know that their model is not discriminatory. 

Not an easy task. ZKPs offer a verifiable solution. 

ZKML (zero knowledge machine learning) is how we use zero-knowledge proofs to verify that an ML model is what it says on the box. ZKML combines zero-knowledge cryptography with machine learning to create systems that can verify AI properties without exposing the underlying models or data. We can also take that concept and use ZKPs to identify ML models that treat everyone equally and fairly. 

Recent: Know Your Peer — The pros and cons of KYC

Previously, using ZKPs to prove AI fairness was extremely limited because it could only focus on one phase of the ML pipeline. This made it possible for dishonest model providers to construct data sets that would satisfy the fairness requirements, even if the model failed to do so. The ZKPs would also introduce unrealistic computational demands and long wait times to produce proofs of fairness.

In recent months, ZK frameworks have made it possible to scale ZKPs to determine the end-to-end fairness of models with tens of millions of parameters and to do so provably securely.  

The trillion-dollar question: How do we measure whether an AI is fair?

Let’s break down three of the most common group fairness definitions: demographic parity, equality of opportunity and predictive equality. 

Demographic parity means that the probability of a specific prediction is the same across different groups, such as race or sex. Diversity, equity and inclusion departments often use it as a measurement to attempt to reflect the demographics of a population within a company’s workforce. It’s not the ideal fairness metric for ML models because expecting that every group will have the same outcomes is unrealistic.

Equality of opportunity is easy for most people to understand. It gives every group the same chance to have a positive outcome, assuming they are equally qualified. It is not optimizing for outcomes — only that every demographic should have the same opportunity to get a job or a home loan. 

Likewise, predictive equality measures if an ML model makes predictions with the same accuracy across various demographics, so no one is penalized simply for being part of a group. 

In both cases, the ML model is not putting its thumb on the scale for equity reasons but only to ensure that groups are not being discriminated against in any way. This is an eminently sensible fix.

Fairness is becoming the standard, one way or another

Over the past year, the US government and other countries have issued statements and mandates around AI fairness and protecting the public from ML bias. Now, with a new administration in the US, AI fairness will likely be approached differently, returning the focus to equality of opportunity and away from equity. 

As political landscapes shift, so do fairness definitions in AI, moving between equity-focused and opportunity-focused paradigms. We welcome ML models that treat everyone equally without putting thumbs on the scale. Zero-knowledge proofs can serve as an airtight way to verify ML models are doing this without revealing private data.  

While ZKPs have faced plenty of scalability challenges over the years, the technology is finally becoming affordable for mainstream use cases. We can use ZKPs to verify training data integrity, protect privacy, and ensure the models we’re using are what they say they are. 

As ML models become more interwoven in our daily lives and our future job prospects, college admissions and mortgages depend on them, we could use a little more reassurance that AI treats us fairly. Whether we can all agree on the definition of fairness, however, is another question entirely.

Opinion by: Rob Viglione, co-founder and CEO of Horizen Labs.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin (BTC) price has been consolidating in a wide range between $80,000 to $88,500 since March 12. 

Data suggests that Bitcoin’s consolidation may continue for some time, with onchain indicators pointing to the continuation of the “broader downtrend.” The key question that remains is when Bitcoin’s consolidation will end.

BTC funding rates show low chances of a breakout

One of the clearest signs that there is more choppy price action ahead for Bitcoin is the presence of muted funding rates in the BTC futures markets.

Key points:

• Funding rates are periodic payments made between long and short traders in perpetual futures contracts to keep prices aligned with the spot market.

• When this metric turns negative, it means short sellers are paying long holders, indicating that bearish sentiment dominates.

• BTC funding rates have been oscillating around 0% since late February, indicating indecisiveness dominates the market.

• When funding rates are zero, the cost of holding positions is minimal, reducing pressure on traders to exit longs or shorts and leading to price consolidation.

Commenting on the funding rate, crypto analyst Axel Adler Junior said that Bitcoin’s average funding rate on major exchanges “has dropped into negative territory,” currently sitting just above zero.

“In this cycle, in four similar instances, it ended with a price increase and once with a decline.”

According to the analyst, positive signals from the US Federal Reserve and the Trump administration could renew fresh inflows into the market, “potentially triggering the start of a new rally.”

Onchain metrics show Bitcoin price stuck in “broader downtrend”

Several onchain metrics suggest Bitcoin’s April 2 rally to $87,500 was just a “relief rally within a broader downtrend rather than the beginning of a sustained reversal,” according to market intelligence firm Glassnode.

In its latest market report, Glassnode found that the 90-day simple moving average of Bitcoin’s Realized Profit/Loss Ratio had declined significantly since January, despite repeated rallies in the $76,000–$80,000 range.

These brief profit-driven surges have failed to end the ongoing consolidation, suggesting that the “macro picture remains one of generally weaker liquidity and deteriorating investor profitability,” it said.

“So far, there is little evidence suggesting a structural bullish shift in momentum is underway.”

An accompanying chart shows data from the onchain volume-weighted prices metric, which calculates a price level weighted by the volume of coins moved onchain over a specific timeframe.

Using this, Glassnode can compare when and how much capital was actually moved in the last 1 month compared to the last 6 months, giving a direct reflection of market trends.

The recent cross-over of the short-term 1-month average below the long-term 6-month price indicates an onchain “death cross,” Glassnode said.

“This pattern has historically preceded 3–6 month-long bearish trends. If this cycle follows suit, it suggests the market may still be working through a period of weakness before the bulls can reestablish a robust uptrend.”

Bitcoin price consolidation could end soon— Bollinger Bands

Anticipation of a breakout in BTC price lingers in the background, as suggested by Bitcoin’s volatility indicator.

Key points:

• Tightening Bollinger Bands conditions indicate that a breakout might be very close.

• The weekly Bollinger Bandwidth is at an extremely oversold level, touching its lower green line.

• The width of the Bollinger Bands is as tight as it was between July 2024 and November 2024 when it consolidated between $55,000 and $69,000, the 2021 all-time high.

• BTC/USD then rallied 60% from $67,500 in October 2026 to its previous high of $106,000 reached in December 2024.

• The indicator was also this tight between July 2023 and October 2023, preceding a 176% rally in BTC price from $24,400 to $73,800 on March 14, 2024.

If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could soon break out of consolidation to stage a massive upward move over the next few weeks.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Lawmakers on the US Senate Banking Committee voted to advance the nomination of Paul Atkins to be chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), paving the way for a full floor vote in the chamber.

In an April 3 executive session of the banking committee, lawmakers voted 13-11 for Atkins to serve two consecutive terms as an SEC commissioner, taking over former Chair Gary Gensler’s term ending in June 2026 and another term ending in 2031.

Atkins’ nomination will soon go to the Republican-controlled Senate for a full floor vote, where many experts suggest he is likely to be confirmed.

Before calling for a vote, committee chair Tim Scott said Atkins would bring “much-needed clarity for digital assets.” Ranking member Elizabeth Warren reiterated earlier concerns about Trump’s pick helping “billionaire scammers” like former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried and Tesla CEO Elon Musk “actively trying to destroy” federal agencies, like the SEC. 

Related: Crypto has a regulatory capture problem in Washington — or does it?

The committee also advanced nominations for Jonathan Gould as Comptroller of the Currency, Luke Pettit as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury, and Marcus Molinaro as Federal Transit Administrator. The majority of Democrats on the committee were not present on April 3, with Senator Warren acting as a proxy for many votes.

Implications of new SEC leadership on the crypto industry 

As a presidential candidate, Trump pledged to fire Gensler “on day one” of his second term in office as a promise to the crypto industry.

Many investors and company executives criticized the former SEC chair for a “regulation by enforcement” approach to digital assets, with the commission filing lawsuits against major firms over alleged violations of securities laws.

Gensler resigned his position on Jan. 20 — the day of Trump’s inauguration — paving the way for the president to choose Commissioner Mark Uyeda as acting chair.

Under Uyeda, the SEC has dropped many of the enforcement actions filed under Gensler, including some against companies with executives who contributed directly to the president’s 2024 campaign, like Ripple Labs.

Democratic lawmakers have called on Uyeda to preserve information and communications regarding the Trump administration’s ties to the family-backed crypto company World Liberty Financial, claiming conflicts of interest.

Musk’s “government efficiency” team under Trump has also reportedly been granted access to the SEC’s data and systems, raising concerns about a potential purge of civil servants at the agency and market disruptions. 

Magazine: Trump’s crypto ventures raise conflict of interest, insider trading questions

Bitcoin’s (BTC) journey from a radical experiment to a trillion-dollar asset has been fueled by grand narratives: Digital gold, decentralized money and an alternative financial system. Beyond the hype, how does Bitcoin remain true to its core values? 

That’s the central theme of the latest episode of The Clear Crypto Podcast, where hosts Nathan Jeffay and Gareth Jenkinson are joined by Charlie Spears, co-founder of Blockspace Media, to unpack Bitcoin’s evolving role in the global financial system.

Bitcoin’s evolution

From the outset, Bitcoin was designed as a decentralized alternative to traditional money.

But as adoption has surged, so too has the debate over its scalability and usability. Jenkinson began the conversation by explaining the origins of the original cryptocurrency and how that has shifted over time:

“It started out as digital gold and electronic money, and it was supposed to be that. And this is why there is that shift towards scaling and different transactional capabilities that people are looking to bring onto the network.”

The discussion underscores the growing importance of layer-2 solutions like the Lightning Network, which aim to make Bitcoin practical for everyday transactions by enabling users to transact in satoshis — the smallest unit of Bitcoin — rather than traditional currencies.

Related: 4 key Bitcoin metrics suggest $80K BTC price is a discount

Bitcoin’s core principles

Debates over Bitcoin’s direction often center on its philosophical roots. Some purists argue that any modification risks altering the essence of what makes Bitcoin unique. 

Others see thoughtful updates as a way to reinforce its role as a global financial system. Spears compares this to interpreting historical texts: 

“Reading what Satoshi wrote years ago is like analyzing the words of the Founding Fathers. The world changes, and we have to decide what that means for Bitcoin today.”

The discussion highlights how some proposed upgrades aren’t new but were initially removed as a precaution. Now, with Bitcoin’s maturity, developers are considering reinstating them to improve functionality. 

“Bitcoin is in the hands of its users,” Spears emphasizes. “We get to decide what it should be, just as much as those who were there 15 years ago.”

As Bitcoin continues to evolve, The Clear Crypto Podcast cuts through the noise to deliver insightful conversations about where it’s headed next. 

To hear the full conversation on The Clear Crypto Podcast,  listen to the full episode on Cointelegraph’s Podcasts page, Apple Podcasts or Spotify. And don’t forget to check out Cointelegraph’s full lineup of other shows! 

Magazine: SEC’s U-turn on crypto leaves key questions unanswered

US President Donald Trump introduced a slew of tariffs on April 2, sending markets into a tailspin and dividing crypto observers as to their possible long-term effects. 

At a special event at the White House, Trump signed an executive order and claimed emergency powers, leveling reciprocal tariffs at every country that has a tariff on US goods, starting at a 10% minimum.

The long-term effect that this swathe of new taxes could have on global markets is unknown. The uncertainty is compounded by the ambiguous methodology the Trump administration used to determine the tariff rates. 

Some believe that the crypto market is due for a boom as investors seek an alternative for traditional investments. Others note the effect tariffs could have on mining equipment, hampering profitability. More still are concerned about the broader impact of tariffs and a possible recession. 

Trump’s tariffs “provide certainty” for markets

Financial markets crashed immediately on the news of the tariffs, with crypto markets no exception. 

Bitcoin (BTC) had nearly reached a session high at $88,500 but dropped 2.6% back to around $83,000. Ether (ETH) fell from $1,934 to $1,797 immediately following the tariff announcement, and the total crypto market capitalization dropped 5.3% to $2.7 trillion. 

Some market analysts aren’t shaken. Trader Michaël van de Poppe wrote that the tariffs “won’t be as bad as the entire population expects them to be.”

“Uncertainty fades away. Gold will drop. ‘Buy the rumor, sell the news,’” he said. “Altcoins & Bitcoin goes up. ‘Sell the rumor, buy the news.’”

BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes said that while the tariffs may reduce the trade deficit, fewer exports could limit the demand for US Treasurys, requiring domestic intervention from the Federal Reserve to stabilize the market.

“The Fed and banking system must step up to ensure a well-functioning treasury [market], which means Brrrr,” he said.

“Brrrr” — a reference to the Reserve printing more money — is a theory Hayes has previously suggested could be positive for Bitcoin’s price as increased liquidity enters the market.

What about crypto miners?

American crypto miners may have less cause for optimism about the tariffs, as they are directly affected by the markups on goods — namely crypto mining rigs — imported from Asia.

Mitchell Askew, head analyst at mining-as-a-service firm Blockware Solutions, said: “Tariffs have MASSIVE implications for Bitcoin Miners. [Expect] off-shore supply to get squeezed, increasing demand for on-shore miners. If this is coupled with a BTC run we could see ASIC [mining rig] prices rip 5 to 10x like they did in 2021.”

Mason Jappa, CEO of Blockware, said that the tariffs will have “a major impact” on the Bitcoin mining industry. “Most of the current Bitcoin Mining Server imports were coming from Malaysia/Thailand/Indonesia. Rigs already landed in the USA will become more valuable,” he wrote.

Related: Crypto miner backs US senator's efforts to incentivize using flared gas

Some mining companies are already rushing to get mining rigs out of the export country before the tariffs take effect. Lauren Lin, head of hardware at Bitcoin mining software firm Luxor Technology, told Bloomberg on April 3 that her firm was “scrambling.”

“Ideally, we can charter a flight and get machines over — just trying to be as creative as possible to get these machines out,” she said.

Tariffs’ doubtful math, “extraordinary nonsense,” and a looming recession 

The convenient tariff percentage charts displayed at the signing event at the White House left many questioning exactly how the Trump administration came up with the numbers and why certain countries were chosen. 

Yale Review editor James Surowiecki wrote that the administration didn’t actually calculate tariff rates plus non-tariff barriers to determine their rates, but rather “just took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country's exports to us.” 

“What extraordinary nonsense this is.”

Some have even floated the theory that the administration used ChatGPT to come up with the countries and numbers. NFT collector DCinvestor said that he was able to nearly exactly duplicate the list through prompts on the generative AI. 

“I was able to duplicate it in ChatGPT. it also told me that this idea hadn't been formalized anywhere before, and that it was something it came up with. ffs Trump admin is using ChatGPT to determine trade policy,” he said. 

Also of note: some of the smaller countries and territories on the White House’s list. The full list, as reported by Forbes, levies a 10% tariff on the Heard and McDonald Islands in response to their 10% duties on the United States.

The Heard and McDonald Islands are uninhabited, barren and some of the most remote places on earth, located 1,600 km from Antarctica. No one lives there; no trade exists.   

The dubious maths and contents of the tariff list have many doubting the administration’s economic calculus. 

Nigel Green, CEO of global financial advisory giant deVere Group, told Cointelegraph that the president “peddles in economic delusion.”

“It’s a seismic day for global trade. Trump is blowing up the post-war system that made the US and the world more prosperous, and he’s doing it with reckless confidence,” he said.

Related: Lawmaker alleges Trump wants to replace US dollar with his stablecoin

Adam Cochrane, a partner at Cinneamhain Ventures, said that tariffs “work great for most of those things” when they target industries that also have present-day production to offset the increased cost of imported goods. 

“The US doesn’t have that, nor the factories for it, not the labor to offset it, nor the raw materials for it. So you end up just paying more for the same good.”

At the end of March, Goldman Sachs had already tipped the chance of a recession in the US at 35%. After Trump signed the order, betting markets on Kalshi increased that to over 50%.

Trump, for his part, contended that the tariffs will “make America great again” and give the US economy a competitive edge with its former allies and trade partners. He argued in his signing speech that the Great Depression of the 1930s would have never happened if tariffs had been maintained.

The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which raised tariffs during the Depression, is widely credited as being a contributing factor to worsening the Depression and has become synonymous with disastrous economic policymaking. 

Magazine: Financial nihilism in crypto is over — It’s time to dream big again